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The Australian Financial Review estimated that falling shares in MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths cut the value of Gina Rinehart’s rare earth holdings by about A$680 million ($478 million) over a year. Hancock Prospecting disputes the figure, saying public disclosures don’t capture its full trading history or acquisition prices. The true gain or loss is unknown because Hancock’s cost base and current positions are not fully public.
Hancock Prospecting is disputing an Australian Financial Review report estimating that sliding share prices at MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths have cut the value of billionaire Gina Rinehart‘s rare earths holdings by about A$680 million ($478 million) over the past year. The privately held company, which Rinehart chairs, said the calculation is incomplete because public disclosures do not capture all of its trading activity or the prices at which it bought its shares.
The AFR estimated the decline by comparing the value of certain publicly disclosed shareholdings over a 12-month period, a Hancock spokesperson said. Hancock argues that approach is flawed on two grounds: public filings do not reflect the company’s full trading history, and the timing and prices of its purchases are not fully known outside the company.
Hancock began building parts of its rare earths portfolio in 2020 and has bought shares at different times and prices, according to the company, including at levels below those used in the AFR’s comparison. The dispute follows weakness in two of Hancock’s largest publicly disclosed rare earths holdings: MP Materials (NYSE: MP) shares have lost almost 32% of their value over the past year, closing at $45.43 in U.S. trading Tuesday, while Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) has fallen 19% to A$13.64.
Those share-price declines do not by themselves establish Hancock’s actual gain or loss on the investments, because its cost base, trading history and current position are not fully public. Based on the latest U.S. filings cited by the AFR, Hancock’s stake in MP Materials is worth about $834 million. MP shares surged in 2025 after the company struck a multibillion-dollar agreement with the Pentagon, before retreating from those gains.
Paper Losses Versus Real Returns
The standoff matters because it illustrates how hard it is to value the investments of privately held companies like Hancock Prospecting using public filings alone. Without disclosed purchase prices or position sizes, any estimate of Rinehart’s rare earths gains or losses is inherently provisional — a point Hancock itself is making in its rebuttal.
The episode also highlights the volatility of the critical minerals sector, where companies tied to government support, such as MP Materials with its Pentagon agreement, can swing sharply in value. Rinehart’s rare earths investments now account for roughly 10% of her estimated $25.1 billion fortune, according to the report, alongside holdings in lithium and copper — meaning sector-wide price swings have a measurable, if partial, effect on her overall wealth.
For investors and policymakers watching Western efforts to build rare earths supply chains outside China, the paper decline at MP and Lynas — two of the leading non-Chinese producers — underscores how sensitive these stocks remain to trade diplomacy and commodity cycles.
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How Rinehart Built the Rare Earths Portfolio
Rinehart, Australia’s richest person, made her fortune in iron ore through Hancock Prospecting. In recent years she has expanded into rare earths and other critical minerals, with investments in MP Materials and Lynas giving Hancock exposure to two of the largest rare earths producers outside China.
Hancock has also backed earlier-stage developers. It holds a position in Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU), which is advancing the Nolans project in Australia’s Northern Territory, and invested A$22.5 million for a 6.24% interest in St George Mining (ASX: SGQ), developer of the Araxá rare earths and niobium project in Brazil. These development-stage holdings offer greater potential upside but depend on financing, construction and expanded processing capacity.
MP Materials’ recent trajectory has shaped the portfolio’s paper value. Its shares surged in 2025 after a multibillion-dollar Pentagon agreement that included a $400 million U.S. defence department investment, a 10-year price floor for neodymium-praseodymium products, and a decade-long commitment covering magnets from MP’s planned 10X manufacturing facility — before retreating from those gains.
Rare earths supply remains a focus of U.S.-China trade discussions. After President Donald Trump‘s September meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House said the two countries continued working on U.S. concerns about supply shortages involving rare earths and other critical minerals. Separately, John Hancock, Rinehart’s eldest child and a director of White Cliff Minerals (ASX: WCN), one of his mother’s more recent investments, has backed her rare earths strategy while saying he would rank copper first among minerals positioned to benefit from rising demand.
“The calculation doesn’t reflect the company’s full trading history or acquisition prices.”
— Hancock Prospecting spokesperson
The Numbers Nobody Outside Hancock Knows
Hancock’s actual gain or loss on its rare earths investments cannot be independently verified. The company is privately held, and its cost base, complete trading history and current position sizes are not fully public. The AFR’s A$680 million figure is an estimate based on limited public disclosures, and Hancock says it understates purchases made at lower prices.
It is also unclear whether Hancock has bought or sold shares in MP Materials or Lynas since the latest public filings were lodged, or how the company values its development-stage holdings such as Arafura and St George Mining in its internal accounts. Neither the AFR nor Hancock has published a full alternative valuation.
Watch MP, Lynas and Trade Talks
The paper value of the portfolio will continue to track the share prices of MP Materials and Lynas, which remain sensitive to rare earths pricing, magnet demand and U.S.-China trade developments. Any further public filings by Hancock on its U.S. holdings could clarify its current positions in MP Materials.
Progress at development-stage projects — Arafura’s Nolans project and St George’s Araxá project — will depend on financing and construction milestones. Meanwhile, U.S.-China discussions on rare earths supply, referenced by the White House after the Trump-Xi September meeting, remain a live factor for the whole sector. Hancock has not indicated whether it will publish its own valuation to counter the AFR estimate.
Key Questions
How much of Gina Rinehart’s rare earths value has reportedly been lost?
The Australian Financial Review estimated the decline at about A$680 million ($478 million) over the past year, based on publicly disclosed shareholdings. Hancock Prospecting disputes the figure, saying the calculation doesn’t reflect its full trading history or acquisition prices.
Why does Hancock Prospecting disagree with the estimate?
A spokesperson said public disclosures don’t capture all of Hancock’s trading activity, and the timing and prices of its purchases are not fully known. The company says it has bought shares at various prices since 2020, including at levels below those used in the AFR’s comparison.
How much have MP Materials and Lynas shares fallen?
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) shares have lost almost 32% over the past year, closing at $45.43 in U.S. trading Tuesday. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) has fallen 19% to A$13.64 over the same period.
How big are Rinehart’s rare earths investments within her fortune?
According to the report, her rare earths investments account for roughly 10% of her estimated $25.1 billion fortune, alongside holdings in lithium and copper. Her stake in MP Materials alone is worth about $834 million based on the latest U.S. filings cited by the AFR.
Not necessarily. The declines establish a drop in paper value over 12 months, but Hancock’s cost base, trading history and current positions are not fully public, so its realised or unrealised return on the investments cannot be confirmed from outside the company.
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