TL;DR
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A Noahpinion essay published ahead of the 2026 midterms argues that President Donald Trump’s second term has failed in public opinion. It cites polls showing low overall approval and declining support on the cost of living, while election forecasts point to possible Democratic gains; those outcomes remain uncertain.
A Noahpinion essay published ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections argues that President Donald Trump’s second term has already failed in the court of public opinion, citing polls that put his approval at 37% in a Wall Street Journal survey and show broad dissatisfaction with his handling of the cost of living. The essay’s author, Noah Smith, presents the figures as evidence of political damage, though the polls do not establish how voters will ultimately vote or whether the administration’s record will be judged a failure over the full term.
The essay cites a Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 16–21 that found 37% approved and 61% disapproved of Trump. It says the approval figure was the lowest for a president heading into midterm elections in the newspaper’s polling series dating to 1990. A separate Reuters/Ipsos survey, cited in the essay as conducted September 17–20, recorded 32% approval and 66% disapproval, described there as Trump’s lowest rating in that pollster’s surveys across his two terms.
Economic sentiment is a central part of the argument. In the Wall Street Journal poll figures reproduced by the essay, 60% said the economy was worse under Trump and 25% said it was better. Reuters/Ipsos figures cited by the author put approval of Trump’s cost-of-living handling at 17% overall. The essay also reports that, for the first time in the cited Reuters/Ipsos polling, more Republicans disapproved than approved of his handling of living costs: 51% disapproved and 44% approved.
Smith says the political consequences could reach beyond Trump’s personal standing. The essay describes prediction markets as giving Democrats a growing chance of winning the House and a better-than-even chance of taking the Senate, while acknowledging that Senate forecasts may overstate their prospects. It also says polls have understated Democratic support in special elections since Trump returned to office. Those are assessments and forecasts, not election results.
Approval Ratings Put GOP Seats at Risk
The figures matter because the midterms will test whether public dissatisfaction translates into losses for the president’s party in Congress. If voters blame Republicans for economic conditions, low presidential approval could make it harder for the party to defend seats and advance its agenda. The essay points particularly to living costs, an issue it says was important in the 2024 election and is likely to remain salient in 2026.
Yet national approval polls cannot by themselves predict seat outcomes. Congressional races turn on local candidates, turnout, campaign issues and the specific map, especially in Senate contests. The essay’s central political judgment—that Trump’s term is a historic failure—is the author’s interpretation of current polling, rather than a measurable conclusion established by the surveys.
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A Different Second-Term Verdict
Smith contrasts the polling cited for 2026 with earlier midterm cycles. The Wall Street Journal comparison reproduced in the essay lists Trump at 44% approval before the 2018 midterms, compared with 37% in 2026. It also lists several presidents with higher pre-midterm ratings, including George H.W. Bush at 75% in 1990 and George W. Bush at 64% in 2002. These comparisons describe different political periods and do not explain on their own why approval changed.
The essay argues that Trump’s political position is weakening even as Democrats face internal divisions and skepticism about parts of their agenda. It says voters who trusted Republicans more on several issues in 2025 now tend to trust Democrats more on the economy and immigration. The source does not provide the underlying question wording or full trend data for that claim, so it is best read as Smith’s summary of polling rather than a complete account of public opinion.
Smith also points to criticism from Peter Thiel, a prominent technology investor and former Trump ally. The essay quotes Thiel describing the administration as more dangerous than he expected and criticizing its staffing. That criticism signals distance from an influential supporter, but it is one person’s assessment and does not establish a broader shift among Trump’s allies.
“There are a lot of things I got wrong… was crazier than I thought. It was more dangerous than I thought.”
— Peter Thiel, quoted in the essay
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Polls Do Not Settle the Election
The cited surveys are snapshots taken in September, and the source material does not include full questionnaires, sampling details or margins of error. The polls show reported responses among their samples; they do not establish that all voters share those views or that opinion will remain unchanged through Election Day.
It is also unclear whether low approval will produce the congressional outcomes described in prediction markets. The essay notes uncertainty about Senate polling and says Democrats themselves face political challenges. Its broader claim of a “world-historic failure” is an evaluative judgment, and the essay acknowledges that future developments—including the eventual effects of the administration’s approach to artificial-intelligence regulation—could alter how the term is assessed.
presidential approval rating chart
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Midterm Results Will Test the Trend
The next major test is the November 2026 midterm election, when votes will determine control of the House and Senate. Campaigns, turnout and further polling may clarify whether dissatisfaction with Trump is shifting support toward Democratic candidates, but the figures cited in the essay cannot answer that in advance.
After the election, the congressional results will offer a clearer measure of the political consequences. The administration’s remaining record will also shape longer-term judgments of the presidency. Smith’s conclusion reflects opinion and evidence available at publication; it is not a final assessment of the full term.
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Key Questions
What does the essay say happened?
Noah Smith argues that Trump’s second term has lost public support ahead of the 2026 midterms, citing September polls with low approval ratings and negative views of his handling of living costs.
What were Trump’s approval ratings in the cited polls?
The essay cites a Wall Street Journal poll showing 37% approval and 61% disapproval, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing 32% approval and 66% disapproval. The surveys were conducted in September 2026.
Do the polls show Democrats will win Congress?
No. The essay says prediction markets favored Democrats in the House and gave them better-than-even odds in the Senate, but forecasts are not results. The November election will determine control of Congress.
Is “world-historic failure” an established fact?
No. It is Smith’s assessment of the presidency based on the polling and political developments discussed in the essay. The surveys measure approval and opinions on specific issues; they do not establish that broader historical judgment.
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