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TL;DR
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, Oct. 30, after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins below analyst expectations, despite reporting strong third-quarter growth. The decline cut the market value of the U.S. government’s Intel shares by about $12 billion in one day, though the stake remained worth substantially more than the $8.9 billion the government paid.
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, Oct. 30, closing at $65.76 after the company’s fourth-quarter forecast came in below analyst expectations. The decline cut the estimated market value of the U.S. government’s 433.3 million shares by about $12 billion in a day, although the holding remained worth roughly $28.5 billion—well above the government’s $8.9 billion purchase cost.
The selloff followed Intel’s third-quarter results, released after the market closed Thursday. Revenue rose 21% year over year to $16.5 billion, beating the company’s own guidance. Adjusted earnings were $0.52 per share, compared with Intel’s forecast of $0.38. Its adjusted gross margin was 44.1%, about two percentage points above its guidance.
Investors focused on what Intel expects next. The company forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, with a midpoint of $15.5 billion. That was below the roughly $17.1 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. Intel also projected an adjusted gross margin of 38%, down from 44.1% in the third quarter, and adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share, below the $0.43 analysts expected.
The company’s Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion, its strongest growth in 15 years, according to Intel. But PC chip revenue fell 5%, and the company expects it to decline by more than 20% from the third quarter to the fourth. Intel also cited a fatal accident at its factory in Israel, which the source material says is expected to reduce fourth-quarter revenue by about $300 million.
Infographic 01 · One day, one stake
One trading day cost Washington more than it paid
Intel's stock fell about 29% on Friday after a weak forecast. Here is what that did to the shares the US government bought in August 2025, and how the price compares with what other buyers paid.
The government’s stake, on paper
433.3 million shares × price
- PaidAug 2025, at $20.47 a share$8.9B
- Thursday's close29 Oct 2026, $92.07$39.9B
- Friday's close30 Oct 2026, $65.76$28.5B
The one-day loss (about $11.4B) was larger than the $8.9B the government paid. The stake is still worth roughly three times its cost.
What different buyers paid per share
Red line: Friday’s close, $65.76
- US governmentAug 2025 · 433.3M shares$20.47
- SoftBankSep 2025 · 87M shares$23.00
- Nvidiaagreed Sep 2025 · 215M shares$23.28
- Public offeringAug 2026 · about 242M shares$95.00
2025 buyers are far above water; buyers of the August 2026 offering are about 31% below their price (my arithmetic).
Market prices as reported by Yahoo Finance and CNBC for 29–30 October 2026; no licensed price feed. Stake values: Yahoo Finance’s arithmetic with 433.3 million shares. Purchase prices from Intel’s 10-Q and the August 2025 agreement.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 30 Oct · Yahoo Finance (stake), 30 Oct · CNBC, 30 Oct · Intel 10-Q, 30 Oct · Intel 8-K, 22 Aug 2025.
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Why the Forecast Hit Washington’s Stake
The share-price drop reduced the government’s holding from an estimated $39.9 billion at Thursday’s close to $28.5 billion on Friday, based on the cited share count and closing prices. CNBC put the one-day decline in the stake’s value at about $12 billion. These are changes in market value, not cash losses from a sale: the government still held the shares, and their Friday value was about three times the $8.9 billion purchase price.
The swing matters because Washington became a major Intel shareholder through a deal tied to public support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. A fall in the share price changes the paper value of that investment and draws attention to the risks of tying government-backed industrial policy to a company’s market performance. It does not, by itself, show that the government has sold shares or that its original outlay has been lost.
For customers and businesses, the results point to an uneven effect from AI demand. Intel’s server-chip sales are rising, but the company says intense demand for memory used in data centers is pushing up costs and contributing to higher PC prices. If those prices curb computer purchases, the pressure reaches Intel’s established PC business as well as consumers and computer makers.
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A Strong Quarter, Then a Lower Outlook
Intel closed at $92.07 on Thursday before the results release and at $65.76 the next day. Yahoo Finance calculated that the fall erased nearly $140 billion in Intel’s market value. Its comparison of closing prices back to May 1973 found only one worse day for the stock: July 5, 1974, when it fell nearly 30%. CNBC also described Friday as Intel’s worst trading day since the 1970s. Those descriptions refer to the historical comparison of the share-price decline, not to the size of the company or its government stake.
The stock had risen sharply earlier in 2026: Yahoo Finance calculated that it had nearly quadrupled from the start of the year to a record on June 22. Even after Friday’s fall, it remained nearly 80% higher for the year, but more than half below that peak. The wider market also fell on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.9%, according to CNBC; Intel’s decline came amid losses in several major chip stocks.
The government acquired its 433.3 million shares in August 2025 at $20.47 each, a total cost of about $8.9 billion, according to the supplied source material. The purchase was funded with chip grants Intel had been promised. That arrangement made the government a significant shareholder, but the supplied information does not indicate that the government changed its position after Friday’s decline.
“Year-to-date system end-point prices have increased significantly.”
— Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan
How Long Will Supply Pressures Last?
The available information does not establish how long elevated memory prices will last or how much they will affect PC sales in coming quarters. Intel linked the forecast to higher system prices and constraints in meeting demand, but the scale and duration of those pressures remain uncertain.
It is also unclear whether Intel can expand server-chip output quickly enough to meet demand, or whether outside customers will commit to using its manufacturing services. Intel’s finance chief warned that positive free cash flow next year is unlikely, according to the supplied source material; the precise trajectory and the factors that could change it were not detailed here. The reported value of Washington’s shares is a market estimate, and could rise or fall with Intel’s stock price.
The Tests Facing Intel in 2027
Investors will look to Intel’s next results and guidance for evidence of whether it can produce enough server chips to capture rising AI-related demand, and whether PC sales stabilize as memory costs affect system prices. Updates on gross margins, revenue and free cash flow will help show whether the company’s forecast pressures are easing.
Another measure will be whether external customers sign up for Intel’s manufacturing capacity. The source material does not give a confirmed date or number for new customer commitments. The government’s shareholding will also remain subject to market movements; no sale or change in its position is reported in the material provided.
Key Questions
Why did Intel shares fall after a strong third quarter?
The fourth-quarter forecast was weaker than analysts expected. Intel projected revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and a 38% adjusted gross margin, while analysts expected about $17.1 billion in revenue and a 0.43 adjusted earnings per share.
How much did the U.S. government’s Intel stake lose in value?
Based on the reported share count and closing prices, its estimated market value fell from about $39.9 billion on Thursday to $28.5 billion on Friday—a decline of roughly $12 billion. That was a paper-value change; the supplied material does not report a sale.
Is the government’s Intel investment below its purchase cost?
No. The government paid about $8.9 billion for the shares. Their estimated value at Friday’s close was about $28.5 billion, although that market value can change as the share price moves.
How did AI demand affect Intel’s results?
Intel’s Data Center and AI revenue increased 78% year over year to $7.3 billion. At the same time, the company said memory demand from data centers was contributing to higher system prices, while PC chip revenue fell 5% in the quarter.
What will determine Intel’s outlook from here?
Key factors include whether Intel can supply enough server chips, how long memory costs weigh on PC demand, and whether outside customers commit to its manufacturing services. Intel’s finance chief has also warned that positive free cash flow next year is unlikely.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
